# Polymarket Edge Report — 2026-06-10 20:35 UTC

Bankroll $100 · ¼-Kelly sizing · scanned 8000 events / 20046 liquid markets

## 1. Arbitrage (mathematically guaranteed if filled)

- **ARB_LONG** — *Jordan vs. Algeria - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.3080**, pays $1.00 → **+224.68% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$4.62**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jor-alg-2026-06-22-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Japan vs. Sweden - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.3190**, pays $1.00 → **+213.48% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$4.79**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jpn-swe-2026-06-25-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Ecuador vs. Germany - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 3 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.4620**, pays $1.00 → **+116.45% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$6.93**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-ecu-ger-2026-06-25-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Spain vs. Saudi Arabia - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 5 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.5280**, pays $1.00 → **+89.39% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$7.92**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 4 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.5610**, pays $1.00 → **+78.25% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$8.42**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-ger-civ-2026-06-20-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *United States vs. Australia - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.5720**, pays $1.00 → **+74.83% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$8.58**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-usa-aus-2026-06-19-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026*
  - Buy YES of **all 20 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.6116**, pays $1.00 → **+63.51% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~10 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$6.12**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Scotland vs. Brazil - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 5 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.6930**, pays $1.00 → **+44.30% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$10.40**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-sco-bra-2026-06-24-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Who will buy the Seattle Seahawks?*
  - Buy YES of **all 10 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.7359**, pays $1.00 → **+35.89% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~5 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$3.68**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-buy-the-seattle-seahawks-814
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 3 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.7500**, pays $1.00 → **+33.33% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$11.56**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/az-05-republican-primary-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 10 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.7535**, pays $1.00 → **+32.71% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~6 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$4.56**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-2026-nl-hank-aaron-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *England vs. Ghana - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 5 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.7920**, pays $1.00 → **+26.26% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$11.88**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-eng-gha-2026-06-23-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Uzbekistan vs. Colombia - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.8217**, pays $1.00 → **+21.70% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~17 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$13.69**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-uzb-col-2026-06-17-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *France United Left Primary Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.8220**, pays $1.00 → **+21.65% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~5 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$4.11**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/france-united-left-primary-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Ghana vs. Panama - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 7 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.8569**, pays $1.00 → **+16.70% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~6 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$5.18**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-gha-pan-2026-06-17-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Czechia vs. Mexico - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9240**, pays $1.00 → **+8.23% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~65 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-cze-mex-2026-06-24-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9240**, pays $1.00 → **+8.23% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~15 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$13.86**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tur-usa-2026-06-25-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June?*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9313**, pays $1.00 → **+7.38% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~25 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$23.28**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-june
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9390**, pays $1.00 → **+6.50% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~6 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$6.08**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/guinea-bissau-national-peoples-assembly-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Norway vs. France - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9460**, pays $1.00 → **+5.71% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~65 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-fra-2026-06-26-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9511**, pays $1.00 → **+5.14% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~25 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$23.78**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/rhode-island-republican-senate-primary-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *NJ-06 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9553**, pays $1.00 → **+4.68% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~31 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$29.94**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/nj-06-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9570**, pays $1.00 → **+4.49% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~65 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tur-par-2026-06-19-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Maduro Prison Time?*
  - Buy YES of **all 5 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9640**, pays $1.00 → **+3.73% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~10 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$9.45**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-prison-time-527
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *NY-16 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9693**, pays $1.00 → **+3.17% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~74 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ny-16-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *IL-07 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9702**, pays $1.00 → **+3.07% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~67 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/il-07-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *MI-11 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9723**, pays $1.00 → **+2.85% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~64 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/mi-11-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Iran leader end of 2026?*
  - Buy YES of **all 30 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9740**, pays $1.00 → **+2.67% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~11 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$10.71**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Tennessee Senate Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9745**, pays $1.00 → **+2.62% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~7 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$7.06**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/tennessee-senate-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *MA-04 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9768**, pays $1.00 → **+2.38% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~407 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ma-04-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *CA-38 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9781**, pays $1.00 → **+2.24% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~58 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ca-38-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Zambia Presidential Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 3 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9782**, pays $1.00 → **+2.23% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~61 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/zambia-presidential-election-winner-20260604205247322
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *GA-05 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9790**, pays $1.00 → **+2.15% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~676 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ga-05-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *TX-14 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9790**, pays $1.00 → **+2.15% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~110 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/tx-14-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Panama vs. England - Exact Score*
  - Buy YES of **all 6 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9790**, pays $1.00 → **+2.15% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~65 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-pan-eng-2026-06-27-exact-score
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *IL-01 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9791**, pays $1.00 → **+2.13% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~68 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/il-01-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *AL-04 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9799**, pays $1.00 → **+2.05% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~273 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/al-04-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *NY-10 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9816**, pays $1.00 → **+1.87% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~84 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ny-10-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 10 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9823**, pays $1.00 → **+1.80% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~6 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$6.05**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?*
  - Buy YES of **all 9 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9823**, pays $1.00 → **+1.80% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~20 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$19.69**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipo
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *MN-05 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9834**, pays $1.00 → **+1.69% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~100 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/mn-05-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 3 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9842**, pays $1.00 → **+1.61% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~18 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$18.01**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-governor-republican-primary-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *MA-07 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9847**, pays $1.00 → **+1.55% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~200 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ma-07-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *CA-29 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9850**, pays $1.00 → **+1.52% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~32 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ca-29-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *MI-13 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9866**, pays $1.00 → **+1.36% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~147 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/mi-13-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9870**, pays $1.00 → **+1.32% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~101 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/vermont-governor-republican-primary-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *GA-11 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9870**, pays $1.00 → **+1.32% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~100 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ga-11-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *OR-04 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9870**, pays $1.00 → **+1.32% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~8 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$8.17**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/or-04-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *CA-03 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9879**, pays $1.00 → **+1.22% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~20 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$19.76**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/ca-03-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *OR-06 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9889**, pays $1.00 → **+1.12% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~5 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$4.94**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/or-06-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *FL-24 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9902**, pays $1.00 → **+0.99% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~823 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fl-24-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *IL-03 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9902**, pays $1.00 → **+0.99% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~11 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$10.50**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/il-03-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *TX-17 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9920**, pays $1.00 → **+0.81% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~123 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/tx-17-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9934**, pays $1.00 → **+0.66% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~20 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$19.87**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-lowest-strikes
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *ID-01 House Election Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 2 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9942**, pays $1.00 → **+0.58% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~11 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$11.04**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/id-01-house-election-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

- **ARB_LONG** — *FL-06 Republican Primary Winner*
  - Buy YES of **all 4 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9949**, pays $1.00 → **+0.51% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~100 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$30.00**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/fl-06-republican-primary-winner
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

## 2. Settlement bonds (near-certain, short-dated — verify first!)

_Buy the ~certain side, collect the last cents at resolution. The market prices a small tail risk for a reason — only act where YOU can verify the outcome is locked. Cap: 10% of bankroll each, diversify across uncorrelated markets._

- [Spread: Knicks (-21.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 95.5¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+4.71%** (= 6880% annualized) · liq $38k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Spread: Spurs (-18.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 95.5¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+4.71%** (= 6880% annualized) · liq $38k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Goiás EC 0 - 2 Grêmio Novorizontino?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-goi-nov-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $4k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 1 - 2 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 2 - 2 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: SC Recife 3 - 0 Athletic Club?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-rec-ath-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Spread: Spurs (-19.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $26k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Spread: Spurs (-20.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $41k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $1k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 3 - 1 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.5¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.64%** (= 5311% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: SC Recife 1 - 2 Athletic Club?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-rec-ath-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.5¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.64%** (= 5311% annualized) · liq $2k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 3 - 0 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.6¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.54%** (= 5170% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: SC Recife 2 - 2 Athletic Club?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-rec-ath-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.8¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.35%** (= 4889% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-xrp-hit-on-june-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.3 d** · **+3.73%** (= 4418% annualized) · liq $8k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May?](https://polymarket.com/event/producer-price-index-ppi-yoy-may-2026)
  - Buy **NO @ 95.5¢** · resolves in **0.4 d** · **+4.71%** (= 4389% annualized) · liq $1k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

## 3. Deadline-decay candidates (judgment required)

_"Happen by <date>" markets close to deadline, still priced 5–60¢. If nothing has changed, price should be decaying toward 0 — check the news, then consider buying NO. Not automatic edges._

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 11?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **8¢**, **0.1 d** to deadline, liq $39k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.03

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **19¢**, **0.3 d** to deadline, liq $13k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.77

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **13¢**, **1.1 d** to deadline, liq $20k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.49

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **38¢**, **1.3 d** to deadline, liq $10k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.98

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 13?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **17¢**, **2.1 d** to deadline, liq $22k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.72

- [Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-june-12-20260605151403755)
  - mid **52¢**, **2.3 d** to deadline, liq $1k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $6.61

- [Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290)
  - mid **17¢**, **2.3 d** to deadline, liq $63k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.28

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **43¢**, **2.3 d** to deadline, liq $5k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.38

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 14?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **22¢**, **3.1 d** to deadline, liq $15k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.90

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **45¢**, **3.3 d** to deadline, liq $3k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.46

- [Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by)
  - mid **6¢**, **4.1 d** to deadline, liq $59k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.25

- [GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt6-released-by)
  - mid **14¢**, **4.1 d** to deadline, liq $27k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.02

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 15?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **26¢**, **4.1 d** to deadline, liq $43k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.00

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **48¢**, **4.3 d** to deadline, liq $3k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.81

- [Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?](https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-jus3-ili1-2026-06-14)
  - mid **15¢**, **4.3 d** to deadline, liq $12k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.06

## 4. Big 24h movers (news check)

- [Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-10-2026) — +91¢ → now 96¢ bid (24h vol $9k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-ankara-on-june-10-2026) — +85¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $18k)
- [Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by) — +82¢ → now 94¢ bid (24h vol $703k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-milan-on-june-10-2026) — +80¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $13k)
- [Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-10-2026) — +80¢ → now 98¢ bid (24h vol $10k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-madrid-on-june-10-2026) — +77¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $19k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-warsaw-on-june-10-2026) — +75¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $7k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-moscow-on-june-10-2026) — +75¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $6k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-munich-on-june-10-2026) — +74¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $18k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-june-10-2026) — +74¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $6k)

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_Read-only research tool. Prices move; re-check the book before placing any order. Nothing here is financial advice; prediction markets can lose your entire stake._