# Polymarket Edge Report — 2026-06-10 20:37 UTC

Bankroll $100 · ¼-Kelly sizing · scanned 8000 events / 20153 liquid markets

## 1. Arbitrage (mathematically guaranteed if filled)

- **ARB_LONG** — *Maduro Prison Time?*
  - Buy YES of **all 5 outcomes**. Cost/set **$0.9640**, pays $1.00 → **+3.73% risk-free**
  - Depth allows ~10 sets; with your cap (30% of bankroll) stake ≈ **$9.45**
  - https://polymarket.com/event/maduro-prison-time-527
  - ⚠ Verify the outcome list is exhaustive (an unlisted 'Other' winner breaks the arb).

## 2. Settlement bonds (near-certain, short-dated — verify first!)

_Buy the ~certain side, collect the last cents at resolution. The market prices a small tail risk for a reason — only act where YOU can verify the outcome is locked. Cap: 10% of bankroll each, diversify across uncorrelated markets._

- [Spread: Knicks (-21.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 95.5¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+4.71%** (= 6880% annualized) · liq $38k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Spread: Spurs (-18.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 95.5¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+4.71%** (= 6880% annualized) · liq $38k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 1 - 2 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.1¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+4.03%** (= 5878% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 2 - 2 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.2¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.93%** (= 5736% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Goiás EC 0 - 2 Grêmio Novorizontino?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-goi-nov-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: SC Recife 3 - 0 Athletic Club?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-rec-ath-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $2k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Spread: Spurs (-19.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $26k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Spread: Spurs (-20.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $41k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5)](https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2026-06-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.2 d** · **+3.73%** (= 5452% annualized) · liq $1k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 3 - 1 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.5¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.64%** (= 5311% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Ceará SC 3 - 0 Avaí FC?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-csc-ava-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.6¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.54%** (= 5170% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: SC Recife 3 - 1 Athletic Club?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-rec-ath-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.8¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.25%** (= 4749% annualized) · liq $3k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Exact Score: Goiás EC 2 - 2 Grêmio Novorizontino?](https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-goi-nov-2026-06-10-exact-score)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.9¢** · resolves in **0.1 d** · **+3.16%** (= 4609% annualized) · liq $4k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-xrp-hit-on-june-10)
  - Buy **NO @ 96.4¢** · resolves in **0.3 d** · **+3.73%** (= 4439% annualized) · liq $8k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

- [Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May?](https://polymarket.com/event/producer-price-index-ppi-yoy-may-2026)
  - Buy **NO @ 95.5¢** · resolves in **0.4 d** · **+4.71%** (= 4406% annualized) · liq $1k · suggested ≤ **$10.00**

## 3. Deadline-decay candidates (judgment required)

_"Happen by <date>" markets close to deadline, still priced 5–60¢. If nothing has changed, price should be decaying toward 0 — check the news, then consider buying NO. Not automatic edges._

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 11?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **8¢**, **0.1 d** to deadline, liq $39k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.03

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **18¢**, **0.3 d** to deadline, liq $14k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.86

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **12¢**, **1.1 d** to deadline, liq $26k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.22

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **36¢**, **1.3 d** to deadline, liq $8k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.76

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 13?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **17¢**, **2.1 d** to deadline, liq $22k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.72

- [Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-june-12-20260605151403755)
  - mid **52¢**, **2.3 d** to deadline, liq $1k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $6.61

- [Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290)
  - mid **17¢**, **2.3 d** to deadline, liq $63k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.28

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **43¢**, **2.3 d** to deadline, liq $5k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.38

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 14?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **20¢**, **3.1 d** to deadline, liq $22k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.46

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **45¢**, **3.3 d** to deadline, liq $4k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.92

- [Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by)
  - mid **6¢**, **4.1 d** to deadline, liq $59k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.25

- [GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?](https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt6-released-by)
  - mid **14¢**, **4.1 d** to deadline, liq $27k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.02

- [Israel closes its airspace by June 15?](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by)
  - mid **26¢**, **4.1 d** to deadline, liq $47k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $12.25

- [Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829)
  - mid **48¢**, **4.3 d** to deadline, liq $4k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.96

- [Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?](https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-jus3-ili1-2026-06-14)
  - mid **15¢**, **4.3 d** to deadline, liq $12k. If your p(yes) is half the price, ¼-Kelly NO stake ≈ $11.06

## 4. Big 24h movers (news check)

- [Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-10-2026) — +91¢ → now 96¢ bid (24h vol $9k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-ankara-on-june-10-2026) — +85¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $18k)
- [Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by) — +82¢ → now 94¢ bid (24h vol $703k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-milan-on-june-10-2026) — +80¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $13k)
- [Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-10-2026) — +80¢ → now 98¢ bid (24h vol $10k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-madrid-on-june-10-2026) — +77¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $19k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-warsaw-on-june-10-2026) — +75¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $7k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-moscow-on-june-10-2026) — +75¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $6k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-munich-on-june-10-2026) — +74¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $18k)
- [Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10?](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-cape-town-on-june-10-2026) — +74¢ → now 100¢ bid (24h vol $6k)

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_Read-only research tool. Prices move; re-check the book before placing any order. Nothing here is financial advice; prediction markets can lose your entire stake._